Dev links: Migration & Replication


No short-term effect of foreign aid on refugee flows

Overview: “We estimate the causal effects of a country’s aid receipts on both total refugee flows to the world and flows to donor countries.”

Data: “Refugee data on 141 origin countries over the 1976–2013 period [combined] with bilateral Official Development Assistance data”

Identification strategy: “The interaction of donor-government fractionalization and a recipient country’s probability of receiving aid provides a powerful and excludable instrumental variable (IV) when we control for country- and time-fixed effects that capture the levels of the interacted variables.”

Findings: “We find no evidence that aid reduces worldwide refugee outflows or flows to donor countries in the short term. However, we observe long-run effects after four three-year periods, which appear to be driven by lagged positive effects of aid on growth.”

Authors: Dreher, Fuchs, & Langlotz

Living abroad doesn’t change individual “commitment to development”

Overview: “Temporary migration to developing countries might play a role in generating individual commitment to development”

Data: “unique survey [of Mormon missionaries] gathered on Facebook”

Identification strategy: “A natural experiment – the assignment of Mormon missionaries to two-year missions in different world regions”

Findings: “Those assigned to the treatment region (Africa, Asia, Latin America) report greater interest in global development and poverty, but no difference in support for government aid or higher immigration, and no difference in personal international donations, volunteering, or other involvement.” (controlling for relevant vars)

Author: Crawfurd


Lessons from 3ie replications of development impact evaluations

Overview: “focus is internal replication, which uses the original data from a study to address the same question as that study”

Findings: “In all cases the pure replication components of these studies are generally able to reproduce the results published in the original article. Most of the measurement and estimation analyses confirm the robustness of the original articles or call into question just a subset of the original findings.” + some advice info on how to better translate study findings into policy

Authors: Brown & Wood

Practical advice for conducting quality replications 

Overview: The same authors share practical advice address the challenge “to design a replication plan open to both supporting the original findings and uncovering potential problems.”


1. Tips for diagnostic replication exercises in four groups: validity of assumptions, data transformations, estimation methods, and heterogeneous impacts, plus examples and other resources

2. List of don’ts for how to conduct and report replication research



Weekly Development Links #8

Brought to you by #NEUDC2018! Check out mini summaries of the many awesome papers featured at this conference here,  and download papers here. These are three that really struck me.

1. Psychological trainings increase chlorination rates
Haushofer, John, and Orkin 2018: (RCT in Kenya) “One group received a two-session executive function intervention that aimed to improve planning and execution of plans; a second received a two-session time preference intervention aimed at reducing present bias and impatience. A third group receives only information about the benefits of chlorination, and a pure control group received no intervention.” Executive function and time preference trainings led to stat sig increases in chlorination and stat sig decreases in diarrhea rates.

2. Conditional cash transfers reduce suicides!
Christian, Hensel, and Roth 2018: (RCT in Indonesia) This paper is so cool! One mechanism is by mitigating the negative impact of bad agricultural shocks and decreasing depression. “We examine how income shocks affect the suicide rate in Indonesia. We use both a randomized conditional cash transfer experiment, and a difference-in-differences approach exploiting the cash transfer’s nation-wide roll-out. We find that the cash transfer reduced yearly suicides by 0.36 per 100,000 people, corresponding to an 18 percent decrease. Agricultural productivity shocks also causally affect suicide rates. Moreover, the cash transfer program reduces the causal impact of the agricultural productivity shocks, suggesting an important role for policy interventions. Finally, we provide evidence for a psychological mechanism by showing that agricultural productivity shocks affect depression.”

3. Women police stations increased reporting of crimes against women
Amaral, Bhalotra, and Prakash 2018: (in India) “Using an identification strategy that exploits the staggered implementation of women police stations across cities and nationally representative data on various measures of crime and deterrence, we find that the opening of police stations increased reported crime against women by 22 percent. This is due to increases in reports of female kidnappings and domestic violence. In contrast, reports of gender specific mortality, self-reported intimate-partner violence and other non-gender specific crimes remain unchanged.”

BONUS: Amazing 3-D map of world populations
(The Pudding has so many other really interesting and informative graphics, too!)

Weekly Development Links #7

1. 11 years later: Experimental evidence on scaling up education reforms in Kenya (TL;DR gov’t didn’t adopt well)

(This paper was published in Journal of Public Econ 11 years after the project started and 5 years after the first submission!) “New teachers offered a fixed-term contract by an international NGO significantly raised student test scores, while teachers offered identical contracts by the Kenyan government produced zero impact. Observable differences in teacher characteristics explain little of this gap. Instead, data suggests that bureaucratic and political opposition to the contract reform led to implementation delays and a differential interpretation of identical contract terms. Additionally, contract features that produced larger learning gains in both the NGO and government treatment arms were not adopted by the government outside of the experimental sample.”

2. Argument for reporting the “total causal effect”

  • Total causal effect (TCE) = weighted average of the intent to treat effect (ITT) and the spillover effect on the non-treated (SNT)
  • Importance: “RCTs that fail to account for spillovers can produce biased estimates of intention-to-treat effects, while finding meaningful treatment effects but failing to observe deleterious spillovers can lead to misconstrued policy conclusions. Therefore, reporting the TCE is as important as the ITT, if not more important in many cases: if the program caused a bunch of people to escape poverty while others to fall into it, leaving the overall poverty rate unchanged (TCE=0), you’d have to argue much harder to convince your audience that your program is a success because the ITT is large and positive.”
  • Context: Zeitlin and McIntosh recent paper comparing cash and a USAID health + nutrition program in Rwanda. From their blog post: “In our own work the point estimates on village-level impacts are consistent with negative spillovers of the large transfer on some outcomes (they are also consistent with Gikuriro’s village-level health and nutrition trainings having improved health knowledge in the overall population). Cash may look less good as one thinks of welfare impacts on a more broadly defined population. Donors weighing cash-vs-kind decisions will need to decide how much weight to put on non-targeted populations, and to consider the accumulated evidence on external consequences.”

3. Why don’t people work less when you give them cash?

Excellent post by authors of new paper on VoxDev, listing many different mechanisms and also looks at how this changes by type of transfer (e.g. gov’t conditional and unconditional, remittances, etc.)

BONUS: More gender equality = greater differences in preferences on values like altruism, patience or trust (ft. interesting map)

Falk & Hermle 2018

Causal Inference: The Mixtape

“Identifying causal effects involves assumptions, but it also requires a particular kind of belief about the work of scientists. Credible and valuable research requires that we believe that it is more important to do our work correctly than to try and achieve a certain outcome (e.g., confirmation bias, statistical significance, stars). The foundations of scientific knowledge are scientific methodologies. Science does not collect evidence in order to prove what we want to be true or what people want others to believe. That is a form of propaganda, not science. Rather, scientific methodologies are devices for forming a particular kind of belief. Scientific methodologies allow us to accept unexpected, and sometimes, undesirable answers. They are process oriented, not outcome oriented. And without these values, causal methodologies are also not credible.”

Causal Inference: The Mixtape by Scott Cunningham, associate professor of economics at Baylor University (oh and there’s an accompanying Spotify playlist)

Weekly Development Links #4 – #6

Dev links coming to you weekly from now on!

Week #6: Oct 17

1. Cash transfers increase trust in local gov’t

“How does a locally-managed conditional cash transfer program impact trust in government?”

  • Cash transfers increased trust in leaders and perceptions of leaders’ responsiveness and honesty
  • Beneficiaries reported higher trust in elected leaders but not in appointed bureaucrats
  • Government record-keeping on health and education improved in treatment communities

2. Kinda random: sand dams

Read a WB blogpost on sand dams as a method for increasing water sustainability in arid regions … but that did not explain how the heck you store water in sand, so watched this cool video from Excellent Development, a non-profit that works on sand dam projects.

3. USAID increasingly using “geospatial impact evaluations” ft. MAPS!

Outlines example of a GIE on USAID West Bank/Gaza’s recent $900 million investment in rural infrastructure

Ariel BenYishay, Rachel Trichler, Dan Runfola, and Seth Goodman at Brookings

BONUS: In other geospatial news
LSE blog post on the work of ground-truthing spatial data in Kenya

Week #5: Oct 10

Health Round-Up Edition

1. Dashboards for decisions: Immunization in Nigeria

A new dashboard is being used to improve data on routine immunizations … but doesn’t look like the underlying data quality has been improved. Is this just better access to bad data?

2. Norway vs. Thailand vs. US

A comparative study of health services for undocumented migrants

3. Traditional Midwives in Guatemala

Aljazeera on the complicated relationship between traditional midwives providing missing services and the gov’t trying to provide those services in health centers

BONUS: Visualizing fires + “good”

  • Satellite imagery of crop burning in India in 2017 vs 2018
  • How good is good? 6.92/10. The YouGov visualization on how people rate different descriptors on a 0-10 scale is really interesting if you look at the distributions – lots of agreement on appalling, average (you’d hope there would be clustering around 5!), and perfect. Then, pretty wide variance for quite bad, pretty bad, somewhat bad, great, really good, and very good. Shows how you should cut out generic good/bad descriptions in your writing and use words like appalling or abysmal that are more universally evocative.

Week #4: Oct 3

1. Tanzania outlaws critiques of their data!?

“Consider a simple policy rule: if a government’s statistics cannot be questioned, they shouldn’t be trusted. By that rule, the Bank and Fund would not report Tanzania’s numbers or accept them in determining creditworthiness—and they would immediately withdraw the offer of foreign aid to help Tanzania produce statistics its citizens cannot criticize.”

2. 12 Things We Can Agree On About Global Poverty?

In August, a CGDev post proposed 12 universally agreed-upon truths about global poverty. Do you agree? Are there other truths we should all agree on?

3. Food for thought on two relevant method issues

  • Peter Hull released a two-page brief on controlling for propensity scores instead of using them to match or weight observations
  • Spillover and estimands: “The key issue is that the assumption of no spillovers runs so deep that it is often invoked even prior to the definition of estimands. If you write the “average treatment effect” estimand using potential outcomes notation, as E(Y(1)−Y(0))E(Y(1)−Y(0)), you are already assuming that a unit’s outcomes depend only on its own assignment to treatment and not on how other units are assigned to treatment. The definition of the estimand leaves no space to even describe spillovers.”

BONUS: New head of IMF
Dr. Gita Gopinath takes over.

Weekly Development Links #3

My final week of taking over IDinsight’s internal development links.

1. Development myths: debunked

Rachel Glennerster asked for examples of development myths, resulting in a list development myths along with debunking sources / evidence against. Some of the myths shared, with accompanying evidence:

2. Traditional local governance systems (autocratic) underutilize local human capital

A new paper by Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster, Ted Miguel, and Maarten Voors. “We experimentally evaluate two solutions to these problems [autocratic local rule by old, uneducated men] in rural Sierra Leone: an expensive long-term intervention to make local institutions more inclusive; and a low-cost test to rapidly identify skilled technocrats and delegate project management to them. In a real-world competition for local infrastructure grants, we find that technocratic selection dominates both the status quo of chiefly control and the institutional reform intervention, leading to an average gain of one standard deviation unit in competition outcomes. The results uncover a broader failure of traditional autocratic institutions to fully exploit the human capital present in their communities.“

3. Aggressive U.S. recruitment of nurses from Philippines did not result in brain drain / negative health impacts

A new paper by Paolo Abarcar and Caroline Theoharides. “For each new nurse that moved abroad, approximately two more individuals with nursing degrees graduated. The supply of nursing programs increased to accommodate this. New nurses appear to have switched from other degree types. Nurse migration had no impact on either infant or maternal mortality.”

BONUS. Data viz: Poverty persists in Africa, falls in other regions

Justin Sandefur shared that the Economist much improved a World Bank graphic to more clearly visualize how the number of people living in poverty has risen slightly in Africa while other regions have seen sharp decreases in # of people in poverty over time. (Wonder how the graphic would like stacked Africa, South Asia, then East Asia & Pacific? Less dramatic contrast between Africa and the other regions? Number of poor in South Asia hasn’t decreased as dramatically as East Asia, would look more similar to Africa trend than East Asia trend until about 2010 I think.)

Weekly Development Links #2

This is part 2 of me taking over IDinsight’s internal development link round-up.

1. This week in gender & econ

2. Two papers on p-hacking or bad reporting in econ papers

3. Mapping trade routes Tilman Graff shared some really cool visualizations of trade routes, aid, and infrastructure in several Africa countries. They were created as part of his MPhil thesis.